Science: Migration Patterns

As the threat of another layoff approaches, I've noticed that my workplace has become younger and younger.  It's becoming tough to find older workers as they've been "retired" in the past several years to make room for younger (and cheaper) kids coming out of school.  (How does this loss of experience impact the industry?  My guess is we're not doing ourselves any favors...)  The idea that you can get a single job out of college that will last you until retirement feels naive and there's a feeling of general acceptance that you're going to have to move jobs several times over your career.  In fact, it's become almost a cliche that the fastest way to rise in your company is to leave to go to another company for a few years and then come back for a promotion and higher salary.  It's not a coincidence that there are dozens of pharmaceutical companies littered across New Jersey---you can literally shuffle between all of them during your career.  Still, moving feels like a huge commitment, particularly if you're a homeowner rather than a more mobile renter.

For example, my parents have had a relatively stable career.  They've mangaged a restaurant business in the same town for over thirty years.  As a result, we never really moved around too much when I was growing up.  We stayed in the same city in the same house.  In fact, we only moved once from a duplex to a single family house when I was only a couple of years old.

That got me interested in seeing how usual that is---do people usually stay in the same home working at the same job?  It feels like more and more people are no longer considering their current jobs permanent or even long-term.  As a result, it would seem like people must be moving homes more often as well.  Particularly since it's so easy to move around now, you're no longer confined to your hometown to wait for jobs to come.

It turns out that you can do some digging in the US Census Bureau's website and find out a lot of interesting information.  For example, the average American moves 11.7 times in their lifetime.  At first that seemed remarkably high to me, but after thinking about it, I've moved 7 times so far in my life.  The first time was with my parents as a toddler, the last was buying a home for the first time, and the rest inthe middle were various apartments I had through college and grad school.  We now live in a rather petite townhouse and it seems quite likely we'll have to move at least once or twice more even if we end up staying in the same local area, let alone considering the possibility of moving to another state.

If we look at the demographics of moving, not surprisingly people in their twenties have the highest percentage moving rates before settling down in the thirties and forties.  Interestingly, there's a relatively high percentage of chilren from 1-4 years old who move, likely due to new families moving into larger homes.

So how has the average moving rate changed over time?  If there is a sense that jobs are less secure now, then I would expect average number of people moving should be increasing.  Plus, the decade experienced the housing boom and more and more people buying homes than ever before.  The Pew Research Center has an interesting report from the recent Census data and their own surveys.  Overall, surprisingly to me, the annual American migration rate has been declining the several decades.

One of the possible reasons is that the overall American population is growing older, and thus settling down.  Another reason cited is the rise of the two-body problem and couples with two careers.  This may deter moving since it it is more difficult to relocate both partners.  My wife and I certainly experienced that anxiety as we searched for post-doctoral and industry positions in the same area.  And I guess with the downturn in the economy, there simply aren't that many jobs out there to even leave home for.  Interestingly, the downturn in mobility appears to have started all the way back in the 90s (there's an interesting blip of increased moves in 1985, which I wonder what was the cause for), which spans periods of economic growth and decline.  I wonder if there is a sense of trying to make your home a more permanent place, particularly in an age of increasing consumerism and the rise of a superficial, throw away culture.  If you have to replace your belongings, your gadgets, even your job on a regular basis, maybe we're trying to make our home give us a sense of grounding.